Turkey Posts Central Government Budget Surplus in August 2025

Turkey’s central government budget registered a significant surplus in August 2025, reversing the deep deficit of the previous year. According to figures released by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, budget expenditures stood at ₺1.191 trillion, revenues at ₺1.288 trillion, resulting in a budget surplus of ₺96.7 billion.

In comparison, the central government recorded a ₺129.6 billion deficit in August 2024, making this year’s performance a notable improvement.

Primary Balance Shows Robust Performance

When interest payments are excluded, the performance is even more striking. Primary budget expenditures reached ₺1.011 trillion in August, while the primary surplus amounted to ₺276.4 billion.

In August 2024, Turkey had posted a ₺32.5 billion primary deficit, underscoring the scale of the turnaround in 2025.

Eight-Month Cumulative Data

For the period January–August 2025, central government budget expenditures totaled ₺8.891 trillion, while revenues amounted to ₺7.984 trillion, leading to a cumulative budget deficit of ₺907.6 billion.

Excluding interest payments, expenditures stood at ₺7.465 trillion, resulting in a primary surplus of ₺518.1 billion for the first eight months of the year.

Expenditure Trends

• In August 2025, budget expenditures reached ₺1.191 trillion, compared with ₺820.3 billion in August 2024—a 45.2% annual increase.

• Of this, interest expenditures accounted for ₺179.7 billion, while non-interest expenditures amounted to ₺1.012 trillion.

• Non-interest expenditures increased 39.9% year-on-year.

The Ministry noted that in 2025, the overall expenditure appropriation is ₺14.731 trillion. The August expenditure represented 8.1% of the full-year allocation, compared with 7.4% in August 2024.

Similarly, the ratio of non-interest expenditures to annual allocations rose to 7.9% in 2025, up from 7.4% in 2024.

Revenue Growth Driven by Taxes

On the income side, budget revenues in August 2025 reached ₺1.288 trillion, an 86.5% increase compared with ₺690.7 billion in August 2024.

• Tax revenues made up the bulk, reaching ₺1.150 trillion, a near doubling (+99.5%) from the same month last year.

• Non-tax general budget revenues amounted to ₺113.4 billion.

Revenues in August accounted for 10.1% of the annual forecast, compared with 8.2% a year earlier. For tax revenues specifically, collection represented 10.3% of the full-year estimate, up from 7.8% in August 2024.

Treasury’s Statement

The Ministry of Treasury and Finance underlined the scale of the fiscal turnaround:

“While the central government budget posted a deficit of ₺129.6 billion in August 2024, it recorded a surplus of ₺96.7 billion in August 2025. Similarly, the primary balance, which had shown a deficit of ₺32.5 billion in August 2024, registered a surplus of ₺276.4 billion this year.”

Officials emphasized that both expenditure control and sharp revenue growth—particularly in taxes—played a key role in the improvement.

Analysis: What Drove the Surplus?

Economists point to several factors behind the August 2025 surplus:

1. Strong tax collection: Nearly 100% growth in tax revenues reflects both structural adjustments in taxation and high nominal growth driven by inflation.

2. Improved revenue-to-appropriation ratios: The government collected a larger share of its forecast revenues earlier in the year compared to 2024.

3. Controlled expenditure growth relative to revenues: Although expenditures rose sharply (45% YoY), revenues (86.5% YoY) grew at nearly double that pace.

The result was a rare monthly fiscal surplus, even as the cumulative January–August balance still shows a substantial deficit.

Implications for Fiscal Policy

The August figures are expected to strengthen the government’s position in pursuing its Medium-Term Program (OVP), which emphasizes fiscal discipline alongside tight monetary policy.

The sharp increase in tax revenues will likely ease some pressure on borrowing needs and help finance interest expenditures, which continue to consume a large portion of the budget.

However, analysts caution that sustaining such strong revenue growth will be challenging, especially if economic activity slows in the coming months as monetary tightening curbs demand.

Looking Ahead

While the cumulative deficit remains close to ₺1 trillion, the primary surplus provides reassurance to both investors and policymakers that Turkey’s fiscal framework still has room to maneuver.

The key questions for the remainder of 2025 will be:

• Whether revenue growth can keep pace with rising expenditures.

• How fiscal policy will align with monetary policy in supporting the disinflation program.

• To what extent the August surplus reflects structural improvements versus temporary factors such as inflation-driven revenues.

Conclusion

Turkey’s central government budget posted a ₺96.7 billion surplus in August 2025, a dramatic improvement from the deficit recorded a year earlier. With revenues growing nearly 87% year-on-year and tax collections almost doubling, the Treasury delivered one of the strongest monthly fiscal results in recent years.

Yet, the January–August cumulative deficit of ₺907.6 billion highlights ongoing fiscal pressures. Policymakers now face the challenge of sustaining discipline while ensuring that strong revenues translate into lasting fiscal stability.