Turkish Court to Rule on CHP Leader’s Future Amid Crackdown

ANKARA — A Turkish court is set to decide on Monday whether to oust the leader of the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), in a case widely seen as a test of Turkey’s fragile balance between democracy and authoritarian rule.

The ruling follows a nearly year-long crackdown in which hundreds of CHP members have been jailed on charges of corruption and terrorism links — including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most formidable political rival.

Stakes for Özgür Özel

The court will examine alleged irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress. A ruling to annul it could strip CHP Chairman Özgür Özel of his leadership post, potentially reinstating former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu or placing the party under the control of a court-appointed trustee. Analysts say such a move would deepen divisions within the opposition, bolstering Erdoğan’s position ahead of the 2028 presidential elections.

Özel, who rose to prominence after leading nationwide anti-Erdoğan rallies, has vowed not to step down. He warned that the party could mobilize millions of supporters if the court moves against him. CHP delegates have already called for an extraordinary congress on September 21 to re-elect him, signaling defiance of any judicial intervention.

Democracy at a Crossroads

Critics have labeled the looming decision a “judicial coup,” warning that removing Özel would dismantle Turkey’s multi-party system. “If such a judicial coup against the main opposition takes place, that would be the collapse of the multi-party system in Turkey,” said Berk Esen, a political analyst at Sabancı University.

Erdoğan’s government insists the judiciary is independent, rejecting claims that the prosecutions are politically motivated. “Ignoring court decisions is a blatant defiance of the rule of law. Such irresponsibility will not be tolerated,” Erdoğan said this week.

Market and Political Fallout

The crackdown has already rattled markets. The lira and Turkish assets plunged after İmamoğlu’s detention in March, and investor concerns resurfaced after the removal of Istanbul’s CHP provincial head two weeks ago. Analysts warn that Monday’s ruling could further undermine investor confidence in a country still recovering from its currency crisis.

For Erdoğan, the case presents an opportunity to weaken the only major opposition force capable of challenging his AKP. Removing Özel would eliminate a rising rival and consolidate the president’s control as he explores legal avenues for another run in 2028.

Reuters, Turkish press sources