İmamoğlu Faces Forgery Trial That Could Decide Turkey’s Future

Ekrem İmamoğlu, the former mayor of Istanbul and widely seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strongest political rival, is set to appear in court on September 11 on charges of document forgery. What might appear as a technical accusation could have historic consequences: a conviction would not only bring a prison sentence but could also bar İmamoğlu from running in the next presidential election.

The trial has quickly become one of the most watched in modern Turkish politics, with implications that extend far beyond a single politician.

Mounting Pressure on Turkey’s Main Opposition

For more than a year, Turkey’s judiciary has intensified its pressure on the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the country’s main opposition force. Sixteen opposition mayors and hundreds of municipal employees have been arrested since early 2024. Imamoglu himself has been held in Silivri High-Security Prison since March, accused in multiple cases that critics argue are politically motivated.

Now, the stakes have risen further. Imamoglu, a 54-year-old figure who twice defeated Erdogan’s party in Istanbul elections, faces a trial that could shape not only his future but also Turkey’s political landscape.

The Forgery Allegations

At the heart of the case is Imamoglu’s university diploma. Prosecutors allege that he forged academic documents, including his business administration degree from Istanbul University. Shortly before his arrest, the university annulled the diploma, fueling suspicions that the case had been designed to target him.

If convicted, İmamoğlu faces up to eight years and nine months in prison. But the more devastating consequence would be his disqualification from politics. Under Turkey’s constitution, candidates for the presidency must hold a valid university degree.

İmamoğlu and the CHP firmly reject the accusations. His lawyers argue that his credentials are authentic and point to the timing of the annulment as evidence of political interference. “Diploma available,” they told reporters during a press conference in February 2025, displaying documents to counter the government’s claims.

A Political Rivalry Rooted in Istanbul

The tensions between Erdogan and İmamoğlu stretch back to 2019, when Imamoglu scored a historic upset in the Istanbul mayoral race. His victory ended 25 years of AKP dominance in Turkey’s largest city and dealt Erdogan a symbolic blow in the city where his own political career began.

After his win, İmamoğlu exposed how Istanbul’s municipal funds had been funneled for years to government-friendly media outlets, Islamist foundations, and religious brotherhoods. His administration halted payments worth tens of millions of euros, angering the ruling elite and further cementing him as Erdogan’s most dangerous challenger.

Critics See a Politically Motivated Case

Opposition figures and international observers have described the case as an attempt to eliminate Imamoglu ahead of the next presidential election. For years, Erdogan’s own degree has been the subject of debate, with critics questioning whether he legitimately graduated from Marmara University in 1981, as the institution was officially founded only in 1982.

This parallel has led many to see the forgery trial against İmamoğlu as politically charged revenge, intended to weaken CHP’s momentum and silence Erdogan’s most popular rival.

Other Legal Battles Loom

The forgery trial is not Imamoglu’s only legal challenge. He faces multiple ongoing investigations, including:

• Corruption charges, tied to alleged irregularities in public tenders in Istanbul.

• “Supporting terrorism” accusations, based on CHP’s cooperation with the pro-Kurdish DEM party in the 2024 local elections. In several Kurdish-majority districts, CHP and DEM agreed to run joint candidates, defeating AKP rivals. The judiciary has treated this cooperation as evidence of “terror support.”

• Embezzlement claims, linked to funding for cultural events, festivals, and concerts. Imamoglu’s team argues these charges are selective, pointing out that the ruling party itself regularly organizes large public events without facing scrutiny.

Together, these cases paint a picture of legal warfare being waged against one of Turkey’s most influential opposition leaders.

İmamoğlu’s Rise: From Beylikdüzü to Istanbul Mayor

Born in 1970 in the Black Sea town of Akçaabat, Imamoglu grew up in a modest family. After moving to Istanbul, his family founded a construction business. Like Erdogan, he played football passionately in his youth and studied at an Islamic school before pursuing higher education.

He began his political career in 2008, joining CHP. In 2014, he was elected mayor of Beylikdüzü, an Istanbul district previously dominated by AKP. His success there paved the way for his 2019 victory in Istanbul, where he twice defeated Binali Yıldırım, Erdogan’s close ally, after the first election result was controversially annulled.

His inclusive rhetoric, captured in the slogan “Everything will be beautiful,” resonated with millions of Turks, from urban secularists to conservatives disillusioned with AKP’s rule.

The Stakes for CHP and Turkey’s Democracy

İmamoğlu remains one of the most popular opposition figures in Turkey. In the 2024 local elections, he was reelected mayor of Istanbul, once again demonstrating his ability to unite broad segments of society against the ruling party.

But his imprisonment and upcoming trial now threaten to sideline him entirely. If the court rules against him, he would not only lose his freedom but also his eligibility to challenge Erdogan in the next presidential race.

The situation also places CHP under immense strain. Its leadership, already targeted by legal proceedings, faces the possibility of being removed and replaced by state-appointed administrators. Observers warn that such moves could effectively neutralize Turkey’s main opposition ahead of crucial elections.

A Trial with National Consequences

As İmamoğlu heads to court on September 11, Turkey stands at a political crossroads. The outcome will determine not just the fate of one man but also the trajectory of the country’s democratic future.

A conviction could remove Erdogan’s most formidable rival from the political stage, while acquittal would galvanize the opposition. Either way, İmamoğlu’s trial underscores the profound tensions between Turkey’s judiciary, politics, and democracy—and the stakes have never been higher.