Turkey’s Trade Sales Volume Up 11.6% YoY in July, but Monthly Data Show Sharp Slowdown

Summary:
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Turkey’s trade sales volume rose 11.6% year-on-year in July 2025, supported by strong growth in retail and motor vehicle sales. However, on a monthly basis, overall trade volume fell sharply by 6.5%, driven by a 10% decline in wholesale trade. Turnover indices, meanwhile, show robust annual gains but signs of short-term weakness across several sectors.

Trade Sales Volume Growth Strong on Annual Basis

Data from TÜİK reveal that Turkey’s total trade sales volume climbed 11.6% YoY in July 2025, extending the upward trend seen since the start of the year.

Breakdown by category:

• Motor vehicles & motorcycle trade and repair: +9.5% YoY

• Wholesale trade sales volume: +11.4% YoY

• Retail trade sales volume: +13.0% YoY

Analysts note that resilient consumer demand and higher prices continued to support retail activity despite ongoing inflationary pressures.

Monthly Data Point to Weakness in Wholesale and Retail

In contrast to the annual trend, July marked a notable slowdown in trade activity compared with the previous month:

• Total trade sales volume: -6.5% MoM

• Motor vehicles & motorcycle trade: -0.5% MoM

• Wholesale trade sales volume: -10.0% MoM

• Retail trade sales volume: -0.2% MoM

This marks the first monthly contraction in retail sales after three consecutive months of gains, suggesting early signs of slowing consumption momentum.

Turnover Indices: Annual Gains Remain Strong

TÜİK also released the turnover indices for July 2025, highlighting a mixed picture:

• Total turnover index (seasonally & calendar-adjusted): -2.1% MoM

• Total turnover index (calendar-adjusted): +38.8% YoY

Despite robust annual growth, analysts warn that monthly declines in several sectors indicate moderating short-term momentum.

Sector Breakdown: Construction Leads, Trade Contracts

Industry sector:

• Calendar-adjusted industry turnover: +31.2% YoY

• Seasonally adjusted industry turnover: -0.6% MoM

Construction sector:

• Calendar-adjusted turnover: +50.8% YoY, the fastest-growing segment.

• Seasonally adjusted construction turnover: +5.8% MoM

Trade sector:

• Calendar-adjusted trade turnover: +40.6% YoY

• Seasonally adjusted trade turnover: -4.3% MoM

Services sector:

• Calendar-adjusted turnover: +40.6% YoY

• Seasonally adjusted services turnover: +0.4% MoM

Outlook: Retail Resilience vs. Wholesale Weakness

While the annual data confirm robust growth in trade and turnover indices, short-term pressures are building:

• Retail sales remain supported by consumer demand, but rising prices may limit purchasing power in the coming months.

• Wholesale trade shows signs of softening, raising concerns about inventory management and supply chain constraints.

• Analysts expect volatility in the second half of 2025 as inflation, interest rates, and household consumption patterns evolve.