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Four Polls, Four Signals: CHP Gains Momentum, AKP Faces Mounting Pressure

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Summary:

Four major surveys by PIAR, AREA, ORC, and Gündemar reveal significant shifts in Turkey’s political landscape. CHP is now ahead of AKP in several polls, İYİ Party shows signs of recovery, and DEM Party maintains a key position. Meanwhile, Gürsel Tekin’s controversial appointment as CHP’s Istanbul chair is reshaping voter sentiment and intensifying divisions within the opposition.

PIAR Survey: CHP Takes the Lead

The latest PIAR Research poll, conducted September 4–7 across 27 provinces with 1,610 participants, shows CHP ahead of AKP for the first time in months.

“If a general election were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?”

  • CHP: 32.8%

  • AKP: 29.9%

  • MHP: 8.2%

  • DEM Party: 7.7%

  • İYİ Party: 7.1%

  • Victory Party: 4.8%

  • Yeniden Refah Party: 3.2%

  • BBP: 1.8%

  • TİP: 1.2%

  • Others: 2.3%

📌 Key takeaways:

  • CHP pulls ahead of AKP in PIAR’s latest poll.

  • İYİ Party records a modest recovery, rising above 7%.

  • DEM Party retains a pivotal role in opposition dynamics.

AREA Survey: Neck-and-Neck Between CHP and AKP

AREA Research conducted its poll on August 22–24 with 2,000 respondents across all 81 provinces via CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Results show a razor-thin margin between CHP and AKP:

  • CHP: 30.9%

  • AKP: 30.0%

  • DEM Party: 10.0%

  • MHP: 8.5%

  • İYİ Party: 7.0%

  • Victory Party: 4.8%

  • Yeniden Refah: 2.0%

  • TİP: 1.7%

  • TKP: 0.9%

  • Others: 1.3%

📌 Key takeaways:

  • CHP leads narrowly but faces a highly competitive race.

  • DEM Party’s 10% support boosts its bargaining power in coalition talks.

  • MHP maintains a stable 8.5%, remaining a crucial player for AKP’s alliance strategy.

ORC Survey: Minimum-Wage Earners and Shopkeepers Shift Toward CHP

ORC Research focused on low-income voters, conducting a poll September 2–6 among 1,450 minimum-wage earners and 1,220 shopkeepers in 26 provinces.

Among Minimum-Wage Earners:

  • CHP: 33.8%

  • AKP: 29.6%

  • MHP: 6.7%

  • DEM Party: 5.8%

  • İYİ Party: 4.5%

  • Victory Party: 3.9%

  • Yeniden Refah: 3.5%

  • TİP: 2.2%

  • Saadet Party: 1.9%

  • Others: 5.8%

Among Shopkeepers:

  • CHP: 35.5%

  • AKP: 29.8%

  • MHP: 6.8%

  • DEM Party: 5.9%

📌 Key takeaways:

  • CHP overtakes AKP among two critical voter blocs: minimum-wage earners and small business owners.

  • AKP’s declining support among shopkeepers—historically part of its core base—signals broader economic discontent.

  • İYİ Party remains stagnant, indicating limited traction among low-income voters.

Gündemar Survey: Gürsel Tekin Appointment Triggers Voter Backlash

The Gündemar Research survey, conducted September 3–4 with 1,170 respondents in 26 provinces, examined voter reactions to Gürsel Tekin’s appointment as CHP’s Istanbul provincial chair and the broader debate over “trusteeship” in party leadership.

Trustee Decision Perception:

  • “Political intervention” – 58%

  • “Legal process” – 33%

  • “No opinion” – 9%

📌 Party-based breakdown:

  • CHP voters: 87% view it as political interference.

  • İYİ Party voters: 82% political interference.

  • DEM Party voters: 72% political interference.

  • AKP voters: 59% believe it’s legal.

  • Yeniden Refah voters: 61% legal.

  • MHP voters: 31% undecided.

Should CHP Stay on the Parliamentary Commission?

  • Overall voters: 50% “stay,” 37% “withdraw,” 13% undecided.

  • CHP voters: 53% withdraw.

  • İYİ Party voters: 56% withdraw.

  • DEM Party voters: 59% stay.

  • AKP, MHP, YRP voters: 64%–72% stay.

📌 Key takeaways:

  • The Gürsel Tekin appointment deepened internal rifts within CHP.

  • Opposition voters are split over strategic alliances, creating fresh challenges for coordination.

  • Trustee debates are further polarizing the electorate.

The Bigger Picture: CHP Ahead, AKP Under Pressure

Analyzing the four surveys together shows three key political trends:

1. CHP Gains an Edge

  • In PIAR, AREA, and ORC data, CHP either leads or matches AKP.

  • Economic dissatisfaction is driving new voter flows, especially among urban and low-income groups.

2. İYİ Party’s Modest Recovery

  • Support stabilizes around 7%, showing mild gains but limited breakthrough potential.

  • Its strategic value in opposition alliances remains significant but not decisive.

3. DEM Party’s Influence Grows

  • With 7.7% to 10% support, DEM Party continues to play a kingmaker role.

  • How CHP navigates relations with DEM will shape broader opposition dynamics.

Outlook: Intensifying Competition Ahead of 2026

  • With CHP challenging AKP for the lead, political volatility is set to rise.

  • Economic pressures—especially among minimum-wage earners and shopkeepers—are reshaping voter priorities.

  • Internal disputes within CHP following Gürsel Tekin’s appointment could complicate opposition unity ahead of 2026.

Source: PIAR, AREA, ORC, Gündemar Research

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