Turkey’s Manufacturing Export Climate Index Rises to 51.9 in August, Strongest Since May 2024

Turkey’s export-driven manufacturing sector continued its recovery in August 2025, as the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) Turkey Manufacturing Export Climate Index climbed to 51.9, up from 51.3 in July.

Any reading above 50.0 signals an improvement in export climate, while figures below 50 indicate a deterioration. The latest data confirms that external demand conditions strengthened for the 20th consecutive month, marking the most robust pace since May 2024.

Key Export Markets Drive the Momentum

The export climate improvement was underpinned by stronger performance across most of Turkey’s top 10 export destinations:

• Germany: Accounting for 8% of Turkish exports, Germany recorded limited but continued growth for the third straight month.

• United States: Production expanded strongly once again, just shy of July’s seven-month peak.

• United Kingdom: Economic activity marked its sharpest rise in nearly a year.

• Eurozone: Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands all reported growth, with Dutch output reaching its fastest pace since May 2024. France, however, posted its second consecutive monthly contraction, though the slowdown was mild.

• Russia & Romania: Both economies contracted, but the pace of decline was softer compared to July.

Middle East and Asia: A Mixed Picture

Outside Europe, the data painted a diverse picture:

• United Arab Emirates: The non-oil economy expanded strongly, with growth reaching its fastest pace in six months.

• India: Recorded the fastest manufacturing growth among all monitored economies.

• Poland and Taiwan: Stood out as the weakest performers, both registering marked declines in manufacturing output.

Expert Analysis: Stronger Global Outlook

Commenting on the results, Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, emphasized the role of easing trade tensions:

“In August, international demand prospects improved significantly as uncertainties over U.S. tariff plans eased. As a result, Turkish manufacturers recorded the strongest export climate improvement since May 2024. This recovery in demand conditions will help support an increase in export orders for Turkish firms in the coming months.”

A Long-Term Trend of Resilience

The August reading represents the 20th consecutive month of improvement in Turkey’s export climate, underscoring the resilience of the country’s manufacturing base amid global economic uncertainty.

Analysts suggest that the combination of stronger U.S. growth, renewed demand in the UK, and robust expansion in emerging markets like India and the UAE provides Turkish exporters with diverse opportunities for growth. At the same time, ongoing weakness in France, Russia, and Eastern Europe highlights the risks of uneven recovery across global markets.

Implications for Turkish Manufacturing

For Turkish manufacturers, the improving export climate could translate into:

• Higher export orders in the months ahead.

• Improved capacity utilization as demand from key markets strengthens.

• Better resilience against domestic demand fluctuations, as global growth diversifies risk exposure.

However, risks remain. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, trade policy shifts, and currency volatility could still affect Turkey’s export performance in late 2025.

Conclusion: Positive Outlook for Turkish Exporters

With the Export Climate Index climbing to 51.9 in August, Turkey’s manufacturing exporters are benefiting from the strongest demand conditions in more than a year. While growth remains moderate, the continued upward momentum offers optimism for the remainder of 2025.

As Andrew Harker noted, easing trade tensions and stronger demand in major economies should provide Turkish manufacturers with an improved export outlook. For policymakers and businesses alike, sustaining competitiveness in global markets will be key to leveraging this positive trend.