“Marmara Earthquake Could Strike Anytime” Professor Warns
earthquake
The Istanbul Technical University (ITU) Earthquake Research Center (MATAM) has issued a stark reminder: the long-feared Marmara earthquake is inevitable before 2065. But according to Prof. Dr. Cenk Yaltırak, this timeline should not create complacency. “The quake could happen tomorrow,” he emphasized during an interview with journalist Hilmi Hacaloğlu.
The Mission of MATAM
Prof. Yaltırak explained that MATAM was born from two decades of persistent scientific advocacy. In 2003, he submitted a 300-page risk report to the Presidency, Prime Ministry, and Turkish Armed Forces, calling for an institutional earthquake response. At the time, his proposals were ignored—until the 2019 Silivri quake suddenly made his research impossible to overlook.
Today, MATAM operates with independent funding. İş Bankası has contributed €6.1 million, with strict conditions ensuring research remains for public benefit, not private exploitation. Additionally, former Fenerbahçe chairman Aziz Yıldırım donated $350,000 to purchase a research vessel, with Yaltırak and his wife covering taxes from their own savings.
Earthquake Scenarios and Urban Risks
MATAM’s research has produced the most detailed 3D fault map of the Marmara Sea, extending 20 km below the seafloor. Findings suggest that:
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The highest risk lies along the eastern Marmara fault, last ruptured in 1509.
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Multiple fault segments could break simultaneously, producing a quake up to magnitude 7.8.
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Statistical models show that Marmara is entering its second seismic cycle, increasing the likelihood of a major event within the next 40 years.
Prof. Yaltırak criticized current urban transformation policies, describing them as “profit-driven demolitions” rather than safety measures. He argues that proper building risk assessments and reinforcements—rather than mass destruction—would protect both national wealth and Istanbul’s historical identity.
Tsunami Threat and Public Science
MATAM also studies 18 submarine landslides in the Marmara Sea, which could be triggered by a strong quake and generate destructive tsunamis. A historical precedent: the 1509 Istanbul tsunami, which sent 6-meter waves over Samatya’s Byzantine walls.
Prof. Yaltırak underlined that all MATAM data will be publicly available, declaring:
“I am a public servant. Hiding knowledge would betray my duty to this country.”
