Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions Soar as Moscow Issues ‘Special Operation’ Threat

A series of escalating military and political confrontations between Russia and Azerbaijan has brought relations to one of their most volatile points in decades, with threats of a “special military operation” raising fears of a new conflict in the South Caucasus.

Crisis Erupts After SOCAR Facilities Targeted

Relations between Moscow and Baku have sharply deteriorated following a string of incidents that began with the killing of two Azerbaijani citizens during a police operation in Yekaterinburg. Tensions escalated further when the Russian commander responsible for shooting down an AZAL passenger jet in 2024 was promoted, and Russian forces struck Azerbaijani-owned energy infrastructure in Ukraine.

On 6 and 8 August, the Russian military targeted two facilities belonging to SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, on Ukrainian soil. The strikes triggered outrage from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who condemned the attacks in strong terms and signalled that military support to Ukraine could now be on the table.

Russian Lawmaker Threatens Military Action

In a video obtained by Turkiyegazetesi.com.tr, Russian State Duma Defence Committee member General Andrey Gurulyov openly threatened Azerbaijan with a “special military operation.” The footage, reportedly shared with other lawmakers, shows Gurulyov warning that halting imports from Azerbaijan would have little impact on Russia’s economy but could “change everything” for Baku.

“All we need to do is put some pressure on their local businesses here,” Gurulyov said, adding that Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine could be expanded without limits to encompass its entire border — a direct signal of potential war against Azerbaijan.

Kremlin Propagandists Echo the Threat

Kremlin-aligned broadcaster Vladimir Solovyov recently described the possible establishment of a NATO base on Azerbaijan’s Caspian coast as a “dangerous development.” He warned that such a move could prompt Moscow to launch another “special military operation” against Baku.

“The current special operation may not be the last of our generation,” Solovyov said, reinforcing Gurulyov’s message that Russia is prepared for further military campaigns in the region.

Baku Considers Arming Ukraine

Azerbaijani media reports suggest that if Russian hostility continues, Baku could lift its restrictions on arms transfers to Ukraine. Azerbaijan’s Soviet- and Russian-made arsenal includes:

• Artillery systems: 2S1 Gvozdika, 2S3 Akatsiya, D-20 and D-30 howitzers.

• Rocket launchers: BM-21 Grad, RM-70, BM-30 Smerch.

• Tactical missiles: Tochka-U.

• Armoured vehicles: BTR-60/70/80, BMP-1/2/3.

• Tanks: T-72 series.

• Air defence: S-200, S-125, Buk-M1.

• Combat aircraft: Limited numbers of Su-25 and MiG-29 fighters.

• Anti-tank weapons: Skif missile systems, also used by Ukraine.

President Aliyev has already authorised $2 million in humanitarian aid for Ukraine in the form of electrical equipment, with the Azerbaijani Energy Ministry overseeing delivery under bilateral agreements.

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