Altaylı: “Gen Z Favors CHP by 21 Points” – Key Demographic Insights from New Election Poll
Fatih Altaylı
Veteran Turkish journalist Fatih Altaylı analyzed a striking new opinion poll in his latest episode of the YouTube series “Yorumlayamıyor”, highlighting overlooked demographic dynamics that could shape Turkey’s political future.
No Ceremony for a Deal Struck Under Pressure
Altaylı began by drawing attention to the recent public sector collective bargaining agreement, which was finalized without a public ceremony, in contrast to usual government practice. The deal followed a presidential decree postponing a planned strike, which Altaylı saw as a sign of urgency.
“The AKP government had no choice but to settle with this group,” he said, while criticizing public sector unions for failing to leverage their bargaining power, resulting in what he called a weaker-than-expected agreement.
“The Real Story Lies in the Subgroups”
While most media reports focus on headline party vote shares, Altaylı emphasized that the true strategic insights lie in the demographic breakdowns. “Everyone looks at topline figures, but the real secret is in the subgroups,” he noted.
Gen Z Voters Back CHP Over AKP by 21 Points
Referring to a poll commissioned by the main opposition CHP, Altaylı revealed that among voters aged 18–25, the party leads the ruling AKP by a wide 21-point margin.
“AKP keeps targeting youth, but with the wrong messages,” Altaylı argued. “That’s why the gap doesn’t close.”
AKP’s Only Lead: Ages 25–45
The only age group where the AKP leads is 25–45, where it reportedly holds a 9-point advantage. According to Altaylı, most voters in this bracket are public employees, hired during the AKP’s long tenure.
“These are people who fear losing their jobs,” he added, suggesting employment security is influencing their voting behavior.
“Unions Must Recognize Their Power”
Altaylı criticized public sector unions for failing to read these signals. “This poll should be a wake-up call,” he said. “The bargaining power is there, but it’s not being used effectively.”
Seniors Swing to CHP, Too
Contrary to popular belief, the 55+ age group is also leaning toward CHP, according to the data. Altaylı dismissed viral street interviews that suggest otherwise:
“Don’t be misled by elderly voters asking for phones in viral videos. CHP leads by 9 points here, too.”
Methodology: 52 Provinces, 10,532 Face-to-Face Interviews
The CHP-commissioned poll was conducted across 52 provinces and 650 districts, based on 10,532 face-to-face interviews. Altaylı presented it as one of the most comprehensive demographic studies available.
