Prof. Öner Günçavdı Warns of Social Implosion: “You Can’t Squeeze Blood from a Turnip Forever”
oner guncavdi
Istanbul Technical University’s Prof. Dr. Öner Günçavdı says Turkey’s average household income has fallen to zero, signaling deep-rooted structural problems. “When average income becomes negative, this system has reached its limit—and eventually, it will explode,” he warns.
Sharp Income Decline for the Majority
Prof. Günçavdı, from ITU’s Industrial Engineering faculty, reveals that household income statistics show a dramatic reversal: between 2003 and 2023, economic growth under the AKP disproportionately benefited the top 10%, while lower-income households saw their earnings decline – especially after the 2018 shift to a presidential system.
“In the 2018–2023 period, average growth was high, but 80% of society gained little to nothing; only the top 20% profited,” he says.
He emphasizes that many citizens—farmers, workers—have taken to the streets in protest: not out of ideology, but out of dire need.
“This Can’t Go On—It Will Blow”
Günçavdı warns that the growing squeeze is unsustainable, and the consequences are already manifesting:
“You’re squeezing the public like extracting oil from a fly. What you extract you channel to a narrow few. This can’t last—it will blow up.”
He warns that by 2024–25, average incomes will have hit zero or even gone negative—signaling a societal breaking point.
We’re in the Decline Phase—Barely Holding On
“Since 2015, the system has been sliding downhill. The 2024–25 figures will be even worse. The AKP can’t win another election unless it changes track.”
Günçavdı notes that after the 2008–09 financial crisis, average income fell sharply—marking the first major reversal in a growth trend that had initially strengthened AKP’s popular base.
Poverty Is Accelerating—Temporary Fixes Won’t Work
While short-term wage hikes or stimulus aid can soften the blow, they won’t resolve the problem:
“Poverty is rising. You can’t fix this simply by sprinkling money around. You need sustainable industrial growth, higher taxes on luxury, and using wealth taxes to reduce poverty. The presidential system isn’t fixing anything.”
He underscores that official TÜİK data already show rising poverty, and brother datasets like ENAG or İTO would likely paint a bleaker picture.
Other Risks: Monetary Policy and Political Interference
Günçavdı also highlights additional fault lines:
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Monetary policy risk: Political uncertainty hampers the Central Bank’s independence and ability to respond effectively.
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Stifled criticism: By silencing business and civil society voices, potential warning signals are ignored—much like a slow-burning fire that suddenly flares up.
“If you suppress critique, your economy loses its warning system. That’s unsustainable.”
Proposed Solutions
Günçavdı outlines several steps to stabilize and revive Turkey’s economy:
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Abandon the presidential system, which concentrates resources and muddies accountability.
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Reform the public sector, which consumes excessive resources.
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Rebuild heavy industry to create sustainable jobs and income.
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Increase public participation in politics—more voices mean better policy.
Lost Focus on Industrialization
While the government claims it has shifted to more “realist economic policies,” Prof. Günçavdı says that’s an illusion:
“You can’t fix this with monetary tools alone. Taking from 80% and giving to 20% won’t keep the government afloat. The AKP has abandoned industrial investment and focused solely on wealth. That’s why we now face systemic collapse.”
PA Turkey Disclosure: This article aims to present informed viewpoints from Turkish experts. Opinions may not reflect our editorial stance.
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