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2Q25 Earnings Forecast – Banking, Insurance & Pension Funds

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Banks Begin Reporting July 21

The 2Q25 earnings season for Turkish financials will kick off on July 21 with Türkiye Sigorta, followed by Akbank and Garanti BBVA on July 29–30.

Banking Sector: Narrowing Loan-Deposit Spread and Rising Swap Costs Pressure Margins

We estimate that the banks under our coverage will post a quarterly net profit decline of 26%, while still managing a 5% YoY increase.

The quarter was marked by:

  • An average 10% rise in TL deposit costs

  • A 150 bps policy rate hike, compressing loan-deposit spreads

  • Increased swap costs and weaker commercial loan activity

Loan growth slowed, while fees and commissions offered partial compensation. Overall, the main theme for the quarter is margin pressure driven by cost-side dynamics.

Bank-Specific Views: TSKB and ISCTR to Outperform, Public Banks to Lag

Among covered names, we expect TSKB and ISCTR to deliver relatively strong results:

  • TSKB stands out for maintaining asset quality and margins.

  • ISCTR is supported by seasonal contributions from subsidiaries.

On the weaker end, we flag VAKBN, HALKB, and AKBNK as likely underperformers due to margin and provisioning headwinds.

Public banks, in particular, may suffer from base effects and their exposure to low-yield lending. In contrast, TSKB and Garanti are projected to reach ROE levels of 35% and 26%, respectively—the highest in our coverage.

Insurance & Pension: Stable Profitability, Selective Growth

In the non-life insurance segment:

  • AKGRT is expected to post moderate QoQ profit growth.

  • TURSG may see limited performance due to catastrophe-related claims.

In the life & pension space:

  • ANHYT is forecast to deliver strong quarterly results thanks to life and BES growth as well as investment returns.

  • AGESA is also expected to record modest profit gains, supported by consistent annual growth.

Ünlü Yatırım Holding may report better results this quarter, aided by the completion of investment banking mandates and improved income from fee-based services.

Source:  Yapi Kredi Invest

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