Poll Shows AKP-CHP Race Tightens as Voter Discontent with Government Grows

A new study by the Institute for Social Studies (Toplum Çalışmaları Enstitüsü) indicates a dramatic shift in Türkiye’s political landscape, with support for the ruling AK Party (AKP) and the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) now nearly neck and neck. The report shows that over the past decade, AKP has lost 40% of its voter base, while CHP has increased its share by 20%.

The June 2025 “Voter Trends in Türkiye” report reveals that in two of the last four national surveys, CHP led the polls, while AKP topped the other two. When undecided voters are distributed, AKP stands at 32.3% and CHP at 30.5%.

Long-Term Decline for AKP, Steady Rise for CHP

In 2015, AKP commanded 49.5% of the vote, a figure that has now declined to around 30%. In contrast, CHP’s support rose from 25% to 30% during the same period. In local elections, the change is even starker: AKP dropped from 43% in 2014 to 35% in 2024, while CHP surged from 26% to 37%.

The trend indicates that while the political arena remains dominated by two major parties, the momentum has shifted away from the ruling party.

One-Third of AKP Voters Hold Critical Views

One of the most revealing findings is that one in three AKP voters expresses dissatisfaction with the government’s performance in economics, justice, social policy, and youth affairs. Key data points include:

• 40% of AKP voters believe the justice system is not fair

• 33.4% view the economy negatively

• 34.5% oppose government-appointed trustees in Istanbul

These figures suggest that a significant portion of AKP’s base offers “critical support”, and could become a strategic advantage for the opposition if even half of these voters switch sides—potentially giving CHP a 10-point lead.

Public Unconvinced by İmamoğlu’s Imprisonment

The survey also analyzed public opinion on Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s ongoing imprisonment. Only 32.1% support the appointment of a trustee in his place, while 38% believe his arrest is politically motivated. Even among AKP voters, 34.5% oppose the trustee decision.

Confidence in democratic reform is low—just 33.5% believe the government is moving toward democratization, while only 25.6% believe it’s successful in fighting corruption.

Only 21.9% of the public believe İmamoğlu will be released within a year. That number rises to 35.2% among CHP supporters and falls to 12% among AKP voters.

Widespread Economic Pessimism

Economic sentiment is grim:

• 61.7% of respondents believe the government’s economic policies have had a “bad” or “very bad” impact over the past year

• Only 20.8% rated them positively

• 33.4% of AKP voters predict further economic decline

• 67.4% believe the government has failed in fighting waste and corruption

• 30.7% of AKP voters also think the government is mismanaging the economy

“Terror-Free Türkiye” Initiative Receives Mixed Reviews

Opinions are split on the government’s “Terror-Free Türkiye” campaign:

• 43.6% view it as beneficial

• 43.8% disagree
  The report attributes this balance to CHP’s neutral but non-antagonistic stance, which has helped moderate perceptions.

Opposition visibility has been affected by the low media presence of the İYİ Party, and Zafer Party leader Ümit Özdağ’s imprisonment for the past five months has further muted dissent.

Mansur Yavaş Emerges as CHP’s Top Alternative Leader

When asked who should be the CHP’s presidential candidate if not İmamoğlu, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş led with 33.2% support. He is especially favored among CHP voters (48.9%) and men (41%), though support among women is lower (25.6%).
By contrast, Özgür Özel received 9.9%, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu 4.8%.

Election Scenarios: Yavaş Leads Against Erdoğan

In a first-round presidential matchup, İmamoğlu polls at 32.6%, with Erdoğan at 35.7%. However, the second round appears neck-and-neck.

Under a Yavaş candidacy, the numbers shift dramatically:

• Yavaş polls at 40% in the first round

• In the second round, he defeats Erdoğan by 10 percentage points