KONDA Poll Shows İmamoğlu Leading Erdoğan in Presidential Matchup

Recent polling data released by KONDA Research and shared on Halk TV reveals a notable shift in Turkey’s political landscape, with Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu gaining ground in a hypothetical presidential race against incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Two additional surveys from Ank-Ar and MetroPOLL reflect similar trends, indicating increasing voter support for the opposition figure.

KONDA: İmamoğlu Pulls Ahead

According to findings shared by anchor Ekrem Açıkel on Halk TV’s Weekend News, İmamoğlu currently garners 43% of the vote, compared to Erdoğan’s 33%, in a simulated presidential contest. KONDA also noted a continued upward trend in İmamoğlu’s support base.

The poll further revealed that 67% of respondents believe another Erdoğan presidency would have negative consequences for the country. Additionally, 62% said they do not believe the corruption-related allegations raised against İmamoğlu following ongoing investigations into the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality.

Ank-Ar: İmamoğlu Leads by Over 12 Points

Ank-Ar’s fieldwork, conducted between April 4–8 across 28 provinces and 2004 respondents, indicated a significant lead for İmamoğlu in a direct contest with Erdoğan. The mayor led by 12.2 percentage points, making it one of the most decisive gaps reported to date.

The same poll found that 65% of participants support holding early elections—another sign of growing public dissatisfaction and political urgency.

MetroPOLL: Most Say İmamoğlu’s Arrest Was Politically Motivated

A separate survey by MetroPOLL, carried out between April 8–12 via CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing), explored public sentiment surrounding İmamoğlu’s legal troubles. The poll asked respondents whether they believed İmamoğlu would have been arrested if he were not a potential presidential candidate.

According to the results, 56.8% said “no,” while only 30.7% agreed that his arrest would have occurred regardless of his political status. A further 12.5% said they had no opinion.

MHP Voters Divided

Interestingly, while the majority of AKP voters surveyed believed İmamoğlu would have been arrested regardless of his candidacy, MHP voters were more divided. Among them, 44.1% said the arrest would still have occurred, while 39.2% disagreed.

These findings underscore the complex and evolving dynamics within the Turkish electorate, as public opinion begins to diverge more sharply across party lines.

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